Sunday, 7 December 2014

The Secret World of Oil (2014)



The discovery of oil as a source of energy has fuelled economies the world over.  The radical improvements to agriculture, manufacturing, textiles, construction, and transport made possible by the exploitation of this incredible natural resource has drastically improved the quality of life for everyone on the planet since the beginning of the 20th century.  The fact that this transformation was brought to us by the world’s oil industry is a great credit to them and should not be forgotten.  However, that is probably the last nice thing I am going to say about the industry.  What follows is the dissection of a bloated, greedy and dying industry that perpetuates global and societal inequity and environmental degradation for the benefit of a very few.

Investigative journalist Ken Silverstein’s “The Secret World of Oil” illuminates the dark corners of this guarded industry.  In an attempt to distil some of the more interesting points in the book I’ll discuss the oil industry in relation to countries, middlemen and then derivative markets.

Countries

When the “Seven Sisters” (comprising the Anglo-Persian Oil Company (now BP); Gulf Oil, Standard Oil of California (SoCal), Texaco (now Chevron); Royal Dutch Shell; Standard Oil of New Jersey (now Esso) and Standard Oil Company of New York (Socony) (now Exxon Mobil)) exploited the world’s oil fields in the mid-1900s, the majority of the world’s oil rich nations (Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Venezuela) banded together to counteract the Seven Sisters power to pillage their natural resources while failing to share revenue, transfer technology or clean up their mess.

In hindsight, this was the creation of Frankstein’s monster: OPEC (the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries).  OPEC now operates as a legal price-fixing cartel, only held legal by the fact they are countries rather than private entities (and thus benefitting from the law of sovereign immunity).  Had any collection of private entities banded together so blatantly to manipulate the price of a commodity (and in this case, perhaps the most important tradable commodity in the world), national and international competition authorities (such as the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority, the US’s Federal Trade Commission, or global organisations such as the OECD, WTO or G8) would have come down on them with serious punitive measures to destroy their ability to pervert the market for their own gain.  Instead, OPEC now sets the price for just under 42% of the world’s oil supply, heavily distorting the global market and contributing to a market that is rife with corruption.

At the time of writing, oil is trading at its lowest price in years.  Counterintuitively OPEC has chosen to use its power by publicly stating that they will maintain current production levels, sending the price of oil plummeting (news link) (don’t be fooled though, this is no act of charity, it is a power move designed to decrease the profitability of the current US boom in oil production (via shale) – they will collude to raise the price again once it is over).

In doing so, OPEC members utilize the basic economic laws of supply and demand, and I have no problem with that.  Any single resource provider/exporter has the right to restrict production in order to reduce market supply (however, when doing so they do incentivise the development of substitute goods – in this case, renewables or nuclear) but acting in unison is always anti-competitive and drives the price up for consumers.  The US has approximately 12% of the world’s oil supply (Russia (12%), China (5%), and Canada (4%) being the other large, non-OPEC producers), but the government has far less control over the private entities that do the drilling.  Consequently, the justification that the OPEC cartel is legal because the members are nations (and thus the benefit is theoretically shared with each country’s populace) is quickly discredited once you realise that the countries in OPEC have historically been run by autocratic dictators who persistently embezzle their oil revenue, for their own greed, rarely applying the funds to address the issues of insufficient infrastructure, poor healthcare and poverty that run rampant in these countries.

In developed nations, if you want to drill for oil you negotiate a licence with each local landowner, provincial or state authority and pay him royalties.  In the Third World, power is concentrated in the hands of a dictator or a small group because mineral resources are typically owned by the head of state.  Perversely, a strongman president, using an inherently centralized process is great for oil companies as it is a lot easier to win support from the top than to build from the bottom.

Consequently, the leaders of oil rich nations rank among some of the richest people in the world, but lead some of the world’s poorest countries.  Look up any of the following: Omar Bongo (Gabon), Mobutu Sese Seko (Zaire), Sami Abacha (Nigeria), Teodoro Obiang (Equatorial Guinea), Laurent Kabila (Congo), Nursultan Nazarbayev (Kazakhstan), Huh Sen (Cambodia), Ilham Aliyev (Azerbaijan), Islam Karimov (Uzbekistan), Garbanguly Berdimuhamedov (Turkmenistan).  The reason you haven’t heard of them is because their populations are kept so poor and isolated that they do not possess the means to be heard and because it works for the oil companies to keep it that way.  Furthermore, if you do hear their names, they constantly hire lobbying and PR firms to ensure negative press is quickly spun in a positive light.

Silverstein goes to great lengths to unveil this gross corruption by highlighting the excesses of Teodoro Obiang, the son of Equatorial Guinea’s leader by the same name (who ousted his uncle in a violent military coup to become president in 1979). Jr. lives a lavish lifestyle in LA, chartering private jets, dating playboy bunnies, buying sports teams, mansions and fleets of sports cars (the guy would be a hilarious caricature if it weren’t for the corruption that led to his embezzling of roughly $600 million) while Equatorial Guineans suffer horribly with rampant human trafficking, suppression of the media, half of the population having no access to clean water and 1 in 5 children dying before the age of five.  It is abhorrent that the country’s oil-wealth has led to huge personal wealth for a few individuals while the country lives in poverty.  It is equally deplorable that major world-powers have refrained from standing up to Obiang for fear of losing access to Equatorial Guinea’s 0.4% of the world’s oil (Condoleeza Rice calling Obiang Sr. a “good friend” in 2004 and Obama inviting him to the Whitehouse in 2009).

The embezzlement of these funds has been made possible by a select group of countries who have chosen to turn a blind eye when it comes to banking.  The fact that the Cayman Islands, Panama, Switzerland and even a great majority of American states have enacted laws stating that it is not necessary for companies to disclose their beneficial owners (as opposed to their registered owners, who serve as fronts) allows these leaders to hide their ill-gotten gains and perpetuate the cycle.

Middlemen

It is clear that despotic presidents and oil companies have fared very well from the status quo, and I believe that is largely common knowledge if you’ve taken a passing interest in geopolitical affairs over the last few decades.  However, what Silverstein does a great job of uncovering is the vast wealth this has created for middlemen.

Because oil companies are cash rich, but opportunity poor, the competition to become friends with leaders has become intense.  Consequently the crucial question becomes: how do you beat your competition to the key decision makers? That’s where “fixers” come in.  Fixers make introductions and broker deals between states and companies.

Again, look up any of the following: James Giffen, Jamal Daniels, Friedholm Eronat, Marc Rich, Hany Salaam, Fouad Ajami, or Gilbert Chagoury.  You won’t know their names, and they have worked hard to keep it that way.  They trade world leaders and oil company executives like baseball cards.  Their service is like that of a concierge at a fancy restaurant; tip them and you will get the table you wanted (except this tip is millions and/or stocks, options, diplomatic immunity, etc.).
These are men of impressive commercial acumen and political opportunism, but I struggle with the morality of their motives.  Silverstein illuminates his subject by focusing on two in particular: Ely Calil and Marc Rich.

Ely Calil, a Nigerian born man of Lebanese descent, pushing 70 years old, now lives in London after having spent the majority of his career fixing oil deals for Mobil in Russia, Kazakhstan and Nigeria.  Arranging introductions, and quite often taking healthy cuts of deals for himself, has been good to Calil who was well-known for counting Severo Moto (the leader of Equatorial Guinea before Obiang), King Abdullah II (Jordan) and Peter Mandelson as some of his closest allies in the past.  Rather than shoehorn my own incomplete opinion into this review, I have chosen a few choice quotes from his interviews with Silverstein to illuminate Calil’s perspective of his role within the oil industry:

“Corruption isn’t endemic in the energy business because people in the industry are more corrupt or have lower morals but because you’re dealing with huge sums of capital…A million dollars here or there doesn’t make any difference to the overall economics of a project, but it can make a huge difference to the economics of a few individuals who can delay or stop or approve the project.”

“There used to be about 40 people who ran the oil-trading business, but then the world got bigger, especially when the oil market boomed and the hedge funds came in, but it’s still a pretty small group of people.”

“From a strictly legal standpoint, there was nothing strictly illegal about it.  It has become illegal now…Was it legal? Yes.  Was it moral?  I don’t know.  But business isn’t about not making money.  I’m not a philosopher, but the law is there to be tested.  If you’re on the wrong side you should be sanctioned, and if you’re not you should be left alone.  Americans want their gasoline cheap, but it’s not possible without cutting a few corners.”

“Oil is not a commodity, it’s a political weapon.”

“There’s no way to do business in the Third World without enriching government leaders.”

I would not classify Calil in the same bracket as the dictators he chooses to keep for company and trade for his living.  He took advantage of a commercial opportunity by simply introducing people; what those people did after the introduction was not under his control.  But he is certainly an enabler and another example of an individual who become disproportionately wealthy from (and thus indirectly contributed to the poverty perpetuated by) the oil industry.

While stronger anti-bribery laws have reduced the clout of fixers in recent years, they continue to outpace and outsmart regulators.  Rather than directly funnelling money to dictators, companies simply partner with a local company that is owned by a president, oil minister, or some other official that needs to be appeased.  Safe to say that where centralised decisions regarding oil persist, fixers will continue to profit.

Derivative Markets

In contrast to my slightly conflicted opinion on Calil, the other fixer highlighted by Silverstein, Marc Rich, is perhaps one of the most poisonous men the world has never heard of, in my opinion.
A Belgian-born US citizen, Rich started life as a fixer before starting an oil-trading company called Glencore in 1974.  At first glance, trading oil seems like a perfectly legitimate and relatively harmless business model in order to redistribute a physical commodity to where demand is highest in the world.  But when looking deeper at global oil prices, in conjunction with the rise in power of these trading companies (see also Vitol, Gunver, Dagmara, Envergure, Cargill, Addax and Trafigura), I am compelled by a different story.

Silverstein describes how, since the oil shocks of the 1970s (caused primarily by the Israeli-Arab war of 1973, the position the political position the US took in that war and the subsequent reaction of OPEC) the price of oil has largely been driven by supply and demand (with distinct geopolitical dimensions).  However, in the last decade prices have swung wildly in the face of such market forces.  For almost 20 years the price fluctuated between $10 and $40 per barrel.  However, in 2005, the price jumped quickly to $70, then after a short lull, again to $140 in 2008, but then fell all the way to $30 within a year and tripled again within three.

The primary reason for this severe and seemingly illogical fluctuation in the price of a commodity with a relatively stable supply is the introduction of a variety of sophisticated hedging techniques recently adopted by oil traders.  Where traditional traders used to trade equally in the physical and paper trading of oil (the latter’s job being to hedge the sales of the former), modern trading firms now perform 50 paper trades for every one physical trade.  Consequently, for every barrel of oil sold, 50 bets are being placed on at what value it will sell.  Silverstein interviewed half a dozen traders for the purpose of the book but they all refused to speak on the record.  One ex-trader stated, “Historically paper markets were created to facilitate trade by letting buyers and sellers hedge their bets.  The intention was not for people to gamble or to give them the ability to manipulate the market, which is what happens today”.  While it is not suggested that there is conspiracy between traders to consistently short the market, the ex-trader goes on, “these guys all know each other.  It’s so easy to influence prices.  If someone at one trader decides he’s going to start selling one hundred million barrels of oil, the market will obviously go down.  No doubt if he makes a call to his friend, and that friend talks to his friend, in a few days everyone is selling, selling, selling – and the insiders sell early and make a giant profit.”

This further perversion of the oil market drives up the cost for the end-user and increases geopolitical tensions.

Now the world’s biggest middleman (valued at $232.7 billion), Glencore is headquartered in Zug, Switzerland (close to Geneva, where OPEC’s headquarters are located – in fact, due to the sheer number of times Switzerland reoccurred in Silverstein’s book, I’m led to believe that the majority of the world’s oil industry operates in the area under the safety of their banking secrecy laws and friendly tax regimes).  Operating through a maze of subsidiaries that make it virtually impossible to know who they are trading with, how much and at what prices, Glencore now wants to control the entire supply chain: pumping, shipping and refining oil while trading and hedging all along the way.  They are an “active predatory force”, designing a system in which, at every step, the money stays in the same pocket.  Silverstein reports that Glencore’s effective global tax rate for 2010 was just 9.3 percent, because nearly half its 46 subsidiaries are incorporated in “secrecy jurisdictions”.  Furthermore, it appears that no money-making strategy is off the table as Glencore helped bankroll the Ivory Coast strongman, Laurent Gbagbo, in 2007 in return for future exports.

Importantly, when it comes to the media, oil traders consciously stay away from the public spotlight, which is probably why you’ve never heard of Glencore despite it being the tenth biggest company in the world.  Commodities trading remains as one of the world’s most opaque, secretive, corrupt – and globally consequential – industries.

Other discussions

Silverstein’s chapters on dictators, traders and fixers were a riveting insight into the recesses of the oil industry, but I must admit that the book doesn’t consistently deliver with chapters about lobbyists (much to my disappointment, as I really felt that was going to be ripe for plucking), legacy lawsuits, retired politicians who happily trump up the oil agenda for their last pay day, and gatekeepers who enmesh themselves in the fabric of oil nations in order to profit from every move.

A discussion of the Louisiana’s Corbella case (one of the first environmental lawsuits against an oil company in which the plaintiff was awarded damages for the degradation of his land caused by the oil drilling techniques used) was enlightening, but too much was made of the seemingly surprising fact that US Republicans had sided with the landowners in these cases (because of their belief in the property rights over their supposed allegiance to the oil industry). 

A chapter titled “Tony Blair” had me salivating at the idea that I would unearth some seriously scathing analysis of Labour’s fallen hero, but instead it was simply the constant allusion that the extortionate fees Mr Blair charges for his public speaking these days have often been paid for by petro-states rather than anything much more nefarious.

George W. Bush’s brother, Neil Bush, was regularly thrown under the bus for being an incompetent energy executive who has bumbled his way through countless companies, bankrupting most along the way and only surviving through a series of hand-outs and political favours doled out by his family’s impressive oil network.  This was hardly surprising news and felt more like Silverstein just wanted to score some easy points by picking on some well-known names.  I wish he had spent more time exploring the themes of environmental degradation and high-level collusion than personal knit-picking of this nature.

However, the book was incredibly thought-provoking.  It is easy to label the oil industry as bad, and I have often done so.  It is much informative to read an investigative journalist’s findings and understand how the industry can be so poisonous, why corruption persists and consider if anything can be done to change it. 

Unfortunately, having read the book, the picture looks quite bleak.  Where such huge sums of money stand to be made corruption will ensue.  While oil remains the driving force of almost every global economy, there will never be the political will (or the authority) to effectively police the world’s corrupt leaders.   Though the book contained no real discussion of the future direction of energy companies (i.e. their ability and/or willingness to phase renewable energy into their portfolios), I feel that this is where our collective mind must now turn.  Rather than be upset by this frustrating set of circumstances, the book reinvigorated my passion for a green energy economy, free from dependence on oil.  Besides the environmental/climate change issues associated with oil this is an incredibly poor way to power our economy and ultimately our society.

In reality, the only solution is time, a commitment to raising living standards and unearthing corruption the world over.  Time for alternative energy sources to develop.  Time that will then drive down the price of the alternatives, reduce the demand for oil and hopefully eradicate the negative externalities Silverstein’s The Secret World of Oil so importantly reveals.

Score: 66/100 


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