Thursday, 31 October 2013

The Politics of Climate Change (2009)



 
Regardless of how convinced you are by the science of climate change, it cannot be said that a failure to reach scientific consensus has been the primary force preventing a meaningful redress of the issue. 

Instead, political reticence to advocate for short-term sacrifices, for fear of losing popularity and economic standing, has been the obstacle most ardently preventing progress.  In reviewing The Politics of Climate Change, I hope to illuminate some of the points Anthony Giddens forcefully makes about the issues surrounding political inaction on climate change and hopefully encourage a dialogue about how we can overcome such procrastination.

By way of introduction, author, Anthony Giddens, is a former Director of the London School of Economics and a current member of the British House of Lords, who has had plenty of experience trying to advance legislative solutions to climate change.  Unfortunately, he has only been relatively successful in bringing such foresight to fruition (through no fault of his own, I may add).  Consequently, Giddens is a credible source when discussing the roadblocks faced by those who attempt to implement such statutory advances.

For those familiar with the issues, the first half of the book retraces the well-worn arguments of the threat of climate change, together with its economic and social consequences.  If you are reading this blog then I believe I shall assume that, whether it is at the top or bottom of your list of priorities, you have an informed opinion on the matter and I won’t beat the horse to death by replicating the arguments.

The discussion of political action on climate change can be overwhelming, so I shall start by breaking it down into the following categories, which I will then discuss in turn:

1.      International Agreements
2.      National Policy
3.      Control of Energy Companies
4.      Public Psychology

International Agreements

The first problematic dynamic encountered when examining any global negotiation on climate change is the struggle between ‘developing’ and ‘developed’ countries.

The ‘developed world’ has attained a satisfactory standard of living by developing strong economies, which by and large, are powered by non-renewable fuels that have contributed the lion’s share of the climate change effect. 

On the other hand, the ‘developing world,’ by its very nature, has contributed fewer emissions, causing less of the problem.  Naturally, they seek to develop their economies as rapidly as possible in order to provide humane living standards for the majority of their populace (with little regard to what fuels are used to achieve such ends).  Consequently, ‘developing countries’ have traditionally been wary of restricting their own behaviour in order to address a problem primarily created by the ‘developed world,’ especially when those measures are likely to inhibit economic growth in the short term.

The moral weight of an effort to alleviate poverty is hard to argue against.  To restrict the behaviour of nations that did not significantly contribute to the problem, who seek to improve the lives of those who have so little, makes any effort appear unjust, paternal and authoritarian.  We therefore see that right off the bat, an international consensus is hard to achieve due to differing historical degrees of culpability and moral arguments about basic human rights.

Nonetheless, the history of international environmental agreements started out amicably enough with the Montreal Protocol initiated by the UN in 1987 (a multilateral agreement to reduce the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), prevalent in hairspray and other products, which were damaging the ozone layer).  No great economic sacrifice was necessary to change the active ingredients of deodourant, so the international community was rightly ebullient and self-congratulatory when it could address such a problem after the scientific consensus had emerged.

Negotiations between ‘developing’ and ‘developed’ nations began to bear fruit with the invention of the doctrine of “common but differentiated responsibility.”  The idea being that those with the best economic ability to address the problem take the lead and allow poorer nations to concentrate on economic advances with concessions on emissions output. 

But no sooner had instruments been put in place to address the tensions between ‘developed’ and ‘developing’ nations (through mechanisms such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and differentiated responsibility), than ‘developed’ nations recognised the second problematic dynamic of international environmental negotiations: international jockeying for economic advantage.

At the UN Rio Earth Summit in 1990 we saw the first occasion on which ‘developed nations’ opposed action on climate change.  U.S. President George Bush Sr unambiguously announced the position when he stated that, “the American way of life is not negotiable,” in response to suggestions that non-renewable fuel consumption would have to be curtailed.

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol attempted to mandate that ‘developed’ countries to reduce emissions by 5.2 % over 1990 levels by 2012.  Such a mission was scientifically understood to be an essential mitigation strategy should the worst effects of climate change be avoided.  However, Russia, Australia and the U.S. were all notable dissidents.  Vast countries, heavily dependent on fossil fuels to transport goods throughout their economy, they were obviously disturbed by the short-term detriment this would cause their economies.

American industrial lobbies notably increased the pressure on successive US governments to refrain from signing up to binding targets, arguing that joining such an agreement would lend a competitive advantage to China.

Furthermore, Giddens explains the lengths to which EU diplomats had to go to obtain Russian agreement when summarizing that, “Russia at that point wanted EU support for its bid to join the World Trade Organisation; while the EU, the leading force in climate change negotiations, needed Russian participation in Kyoto to salvage the whole thing.  So in effect a bargain was struck.”  Evidently, there are no free lunches in international negotiations, even when we are dealing with a global problem of manifest importance.

Even with Russian support however, the U.S. and Australia pushed for voluntary emission reduction commitments over binding targets and consensus was obfuscated.

Thus we see that climate change negotiations cannot be removed from the competitive world.  Despite the agreement over the need for meaningful action, international treaties on climate change are always likely to be held to ransom by the effects they will have on each country’s relative standing in the global economy.  No country will be willing to bind itself to a target that confers a competitive advantage on another nation or a greater detriment on itself.

Unanimous action will thus be nigh on impossible when the consequences of such an agreement cannot be distributed equally.  The result of such negotiations will therefore always be that a compromise must be found and the ability to make a serious impact on climate change will inevitably be diminished.

Consequently, it was no surprise when the Bali Summit negotiations proved unfruitful in 2007.  Giddens noted that such economic protectionism has become increasingly entrenched, and despairs, “If this is success, give me failure!”

Giddens argues that we need the confluence of four factors if international environmental treaties are to make the necessary in-roads:

1.             Universal participation
2.             Binding emissions targets
3.             Integrated emissions trading schemes (however, carbon emissions trading schemes have to be designed very carefully since the wrong policies can produce perverse incentives that distort the market and promote protectionism) and;
4.             Compensation to poorer countries to get their cooperation.

This is without even considering the major issue of energy security which threatens to deteriorate international cooperation. Scarcity of energy could lead to climate change issues becoming increasingly militarized and dominated by security risks.  Giddens notes that “China’s growing influence in the Middle East and Africa is a particular concern.  Russia’s return to geopolitical prominence has been driven almost entirely by the rise prior to 2008 in the price of oil, gas and industrial materials.”  Climate change negotiations are thus inextricably linked to international politics, as well as economics.

The confluence of these four factors is proving no easier with time, yet the EU continues to lead the way in relation to climate change policy.  Such leadership is commendable and necessary; however, it walks a fine line between heroism and cannibalism.  This is because increasing energy costs are making it harder for European companies to compete in the global market place when not all parties are committed to the same emissions reduction objectives.

Furthermore, within the EU, this global leadership/sacrifice is creating additional tension with Germany.  Germany has the strongest economy within the EU, yet one that is still heavily reliant on the competiveness of their car, chemical and steel industries (all fuel-intensive).  The EU Commission President, Jose Manuel Barroso, remarked on the current conundrum when stating, “There is no point in Europe setting up demanding regulations if the result is simply that production shifts to countries where there is an emissions free-for-all.”

Giddens concludes the fraught EU position when remarking, “The EU placed a gigantic bet that economic interdependence and the collaboration of nations would triumph over traditional concepts of sovereignty.” However, the EU appears to be losing that bet as Russia attempts to undermine EU solidarity by continuing to strike bilateral energy deals with individual member states in an attempt to broker power away from Brussels. 

Unfortunately, these competing economic and political objectives have all been exacerbated by the global financial crisis of 2008, leading to a significant relapse in the global priority of climate change action.

The EU, through the UN, will have to continue to work towards achieving global consensus on climate change action.  However, with such unwillingness to make sacrifice by many major players, it is evident that international agreement will be the finishing touch, and not the driving force, of a climate change solution.

Consequently, we must now look to what influence national governments can have within their own respective borders.

National Policy

The role of national government, in relation to addressing climate change, is one of macroeconomic steering.  Governments must look to address climate change issues by rethinking industrial policy, energy markets, infrastructure and education. 

Giddens makes a compelling case that, in order to do so, we need to enter a new era of greater state intervention.  Such language is often unthinkable to those who support the notion of free markets; however, we have seen that to date the mass deregulation of markets has not had the intended effect.  Instead, we are currently witnessing unprecedented economic disparity between societal classes and unacceptable levels of environmental degradation.  Furthermore, national and global markets are significantly distorted by the unaccounted externalities of emission-intensive goods and services leading to a situation where companies are not properly penalized for polluting the atmosphere and the tax payer is left to foot the bill.  Governments worldwide have yet to address the problem by providing adequate price signals to effect the needed transition to a low-carbon economy.

Such distorted price signals are exacerbated by the reluctance of the governments to repeal fossil-fuel subsidies.  Governments are primarily pressured into keeping such subsidies by the strength of commercial lobbyists and the political necessity of keeping energy bills artificially low.  At the time of writing, Giddens notes that the fossil-fuel subsidies in OECD countries still total over $30 billion.

Subsidies are supposed to provide emerging technologies a helping hand to make it to mass market, when those technologies have the capacity to provide significant benefits to the general population (therefore, in time, repaying the investment of the taxpayer).  Their current use, artificially driving down the price of an increasingly expensive good (fossil fuel), is neither prudent nor sustainable.

To combat such inertia, the UK has recently set up the Infrastructure Planning Commission and empowered it with ability to override local governments in order to enforce a top-down transition to modern, energy efficient infrastructure.  This kind of authority is necessary to realize the ambitious goal of a low-carbon economy, however, we must always be careful that such power is not abused or indiscriminately applied.

Control of Energy Companies

In the UK, we are currently seeing what I believe to be the inappropriate use of government power on energy firms.  The leading six UK energy firms (E.on, EDF, British Gas, nPower, Scottish Power and SSE) are being called to account for their energy prices and coerced into lowering prices.  This short-term jockeying for political favour, in the run-up to the 2015 general election, fails to appreciate the larger forces acting upon these companies. 

Energy companies recognize better than most that a transition to low-carbon energy sources is necessary.  However, such a transition will take time and their ability to set appropriate prices to reflect the true cost of carbon-intensive energy sources should be left relatively unfettered.  Vilifying energy companies with rhetoric about grandmothers who cannot afford to keep their houses warm in the winter will only serve to delay the transition.

Nevertheless, no all government initiatives are so misguided.  Governments throughout the world are implementing carbon emissions trading schemes to stimulate technological innovation and redistributing funds for education in the sciences in order to unleash the dynamism of capital markets on the problem of energy transition.  This is a necessary measure, as Giddens notes, “without substantial government intervention there is virtually no chance of effective transformation in the electricity market.”  However, those who receive such support/subsidies cannot treat it as a natural right and resist the natural change of the market – dinosaurs must die.

What we really need is a Green ‘New Deal’ akin to the ‘New Deal’ implemented by Franklin Delanor Roosevelt after the stock market crash in 1929.  Giddens advocates a £50 billion investment in renewable technologies with the aim of turning every building into a power station.  Such a deal would emulate Germany where a similar programme has created 250,000 jobs in renewable technologies industries in just a few years (for further information, try “The Green Economy” by Van Jones).  

Whether or not Giddens specific plan is the correct one and whether or not any political party will finally have the courage to address the issue of carbon taxes is to miss the point.  The question really is, if the problem is so cogently understood and such a plethora of low-carbon economy transitions strategies exist, why do politicians have such a hard time implementing them?

Public Psychology

Giddens argues that the problem is primarily one of public psychology.  “Public enthusiasm for a given policy agenda rarely lasts long, even when an issue is of continuing and manifest importance…cynicism, unwillingness to make sacrifices, the perception that the costs are too great, or simply boredom can supplant the initial burst of public concern and support.”

It is therefore self-evident that the environmental agenda cannot simply rely on anxiety about a future risk as the sole motivator of political change as focusing incidents commonly steal the limelight.  Consider how often the national public discourse is regularly distracted by issues political scandals and celebrity affairs.  It’s not that some of these events are not newsworthy; it is simply that we must find a way to train ourselves to disregard the trivial.

Consequently, one of the major obstacles to climate change action is simply that it has to compete for public and political attention with issues that are basically more sensational and/or easier to fix.  This idea dictates that we (the public at large and public interest groups) must be more focused and vigilant if we are to take meaningful action.  Furthermore, we must demand more of the news media; mandating that they spend less time pandering to the celebratory culture and more time asking us to critically engage in public discourse about long-term problem solving.

Giddens notes, “Worries not linked in the public mind with clear modes of response quickly slip down peoples’ ratings of what disturbs them most.”  Consequently, the environmental agenda must find a way to engage with people by connecting the effects of climate change with their day-to-day life.  At present the effects are too far removed: rising energy prices, increasingly erratic weather patterns, increasing dependence on oil-states whose dictators frequently encourage corruption and commit human rights abuses, etc.

In order to cope, governments will have to resort to a range of strategies while at the same time trying to foster a more widespread consciousness of the need for action.  The habits and routines of everyday life stand in the way, in addition to the difficulty of getting people to accept that the risks are real and pressing.

In order to address these problems, Giddens suggests what he calls ‘radicalism of the centre.’  We must generate widespread support for radical action that can be removed from the traditional political terrain.  We must find a way to remove the temptation for parties to sacrifice longer-term goals in pursuit of immediate political advantage, especially when unpopular decisions have to be made (as we are currently seeing in the UK with the debate on energy prices/state control of the six major energy companies).

Furthermore, we need to advocate a return to planned communities.  Communities in which constituents take it upon themselves to effect the necessary change prior to the mandate of some bureaucratic edict.  We must call for civic pride and shared sacrifice. Britain has already created 10 eco-towns that are entirely self-sufficient, yet these are too few and far between.

Conclusion

International agreements on action over climate change appear to have ground to a halt.  Russian attempts to disrupt EU solidarity by exploiting their natural gas reserves are very counter-productive.  The reticence of developing nations to commit to binding emissions reductions targets is understandable; consequently, we must implore the remainder of the ‘developed’ world to get serious about sharing the sacrifice.  Unfortunately, this is unlikely to occur while the global economy is still in recovery mode.   

Instead, national governments must take the reins.  Unfortunately, it will continue to be politically suicidal to ask constituents to make sacrifices (such as paying higher energy bills) in order to begin the transition to a low-carbon economy while national economies are still in recovery.  Consequently, it is up to the voting populations of each country to generate enough political will to remove climate change from the traditional political fighting ground.  Can such a cross-party agreement ever be reached in the requisite number of countries?  Only time will tell, but I would argue that it will become inevitable once the effects of climate change become more visible in ‘developed’ nations.

The current politics of climate change pose a real and significant threat to genuine progress on the issue and only time will tell if we can act collectively before it is too late.  However, the conclusion I took from this book is actually quite uplifting.  Though climate change is a hugely complex, global problem, the solution lies in local action.  Petition your local government, initiate your own green schemes at work, invest in renewable energy and energy-efficiency measures at home (hopefully with a little government help) and together we can create a movement that bypasses the bureaucracy of international politics and generates the political will to effect change in your neighbourhood, your country and then our world.

 

Score: 88

 


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