Hot, Flat and Crowded (2008)

In 1962 Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring captured the hearts and minds of young hippies and bearded scientists across the USA.  Her exposé on the harmful effects pesticides were having on our natural resources inspired decades of subsequent research and helped lay the foundations of the modern environmental movement (also see James Lovelock’s Gaia, 1979, for a UK equivalent).  For better or worse, most the “greens” of my generation (I was born in 1987) have the reference of Al Gore’s film, An Inconvenient Truth (2006), which brought international attention to the threat of climate change, as their call to action.

For me, it all started with Thomas Friedman’s Hot, Flat and Crowded (HF&C).  Now perhaps I was a little late to the party having only seriously started to consider and research environmental issues on my own time in 2008.  I mean, I knew climate change was bad, continuing to import oil from foreign countries was bad, those new compact fluorescent light bulbs were good and those bright yellow Hummers were definitely bad, but I certainly couldn't speak knowledgeably about the problem or any potential solutions.  But that is exactly why I have such a special reverence for this book; by dissecting the issues and exploring how they are all connected I felt emboldened to learn all I could.

Friedman is a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist, spending most of his professional life writing articles about global trade and foreign affairs for the New York Times, and publishing books about Middle Eastern politics.  In 2005 however, Friedman wrote the acclaimed book, The World is Flat, which hit upon that deepest of Western insecurities: Globalization.  However, in my opinion, it is in HF&C that Friedman delivers his best work.  By pulling together his expertise in politics and economics, then investigating how they interact with the challenge of climate change, Friedman has painted a vivid picture of the dynamic forces shaping the world today and the enormity of the task that lies before us.

It’s not going to win any prizes for most imaginative title, but it does capture the essence of the threads that run through the book:

• Hot:  The rapid increase in the consumption rate of fossil fuels is pushing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere to unprecedented levels.  The effect of such an atmospheric change poses unknown challenges that range from the manageable to the devastating.  But one thing is for certain: it is a problem that cannot be ignored.  Friedman takes the time to carefully run through the scientific basis for such warming, explaining the historic level of CO₂ in the Earth’s atmosphere – 280 parts per million for the last 10,000 years – and detailing the rapid rise that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution  - as of 2007, 384 parts per million.  The overwhelming majority of atmospheric climate change studies have stated the importance of avoiding the tipping point of 450 to 550 parts per million (at present we are rising at 2 parts per million per year, though that rate is rapidly increasing with the following two factors).
• Flat: The IT revolution has radically changed the rate at which we act and the number of competitors available for any single job.  The invention of the personal computer, the internet, software programming and standardised transmission protocols has led to a technological and geopolitical levelling of the economic playing field.
• Crowded:  The world is facing a population explosion that is not supposed to slow down until we reach close to 9.2 billion in 2050.  The rapid urbanisation of the Earth’s population in the last half century has led to a massive increase in the world’s middle class (though bringing people out of poverty is undoubtedly a good thing, their increased appetite for energy is a global problem).  Take for example the fact that in 1975 there were five "megacities" (population 10 million +) in the world; as of 2015, it is predicted we will have 26.

Consequently, Friedman aptly describes five major problems that now affect every country:

1. Growing demand for ever scarcer energy supplies and natural resources (In 1973, 1980 and 1990 the world faced rocketing oil prices due to supply shocks that were caused by wars and revolutions in the Middle East, however, in 2004, the world experienced the first ever demand led price shock as global demand for oil exceeded supply – obviously we can expect this to occur with increasing regularity should current trends continue).
2. The transfer of wealth to oil-rich countries who are generally led by “Petro-Dictators” (Friedman presents a fascinating study positing the theory that there is an inverse relationship between the global price of oil and the political and economic freedoms of the citizens of petro-states (“The Resource Curse”).  When the price of oil is high leaders are able to artificially inflate their economies and rule with an iron fist (think Putin in Russia and Chavez in Venezuela), whereas when the price of oil is low, leaders must act with more transparency and respect for human rights if they are to forge favourable trade relations.  Furthermore, Friedman uses his vast Middle Eastern political experience to explain how this transfer of wealth fuels radical/terrorist agendas and prevents genuine economic development (OPEC countries exported $600 billion in 2008).
3. Disruptive Climate Change (I will generally leave the effects Climate Change alone as predictive models vary greatly but the majority of consequences are widely known).
4. Energy poverty (countries that are unable to generate and distribute sufficient quantities of electricity are generally unable to develop IT infrastructure and thus face a downward spiral in which they continually fall further behind the innovation curve).
5. Rapidly accelerating biodiversity loss (half of all the world’s tropical and temperate forests lost, 90% of large predator fish extinct and 20% of coral reefs destroyed, etc.)

Friedman paints a dire picture of the environmental, political and economic global landscape in the 21^st century.  Rest assured Friedman offers a panacea: “Code Green.”

As Friedman describes it, Code Green is a revolution, not an evolution.  Obviously this is much easier said than done, but I must compliment the author on the clarity of his vision for the future. Governments and private enterprise must dedicate themselves to creating clean power and energy efficiency systems, conserve natural resources and innovate to merge energy technology with information technology (e.g. investment in the smart grid that will allow individuals to sell power back to the grid).

Code Green is already under way.  Beginning with international efforts such as the UN’s Brundtland Commission report in 1987, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Kyoto Protocol in 2005, the wheels have already been set in motion.  

Yet Friedman provides fresh impetus to what often feels an insurmountable challenge.  With tongue-in-cheek he posits that the answer is simple: REEFIGDCPEERPC<TTCOBLOG! “A renewable energy eco-system for innovating, generating and developing clean power, energy efficiency, resource productivity and conservation [at a price less than] the true cost of burning coal, oil and gas.”

Friedman’s plan would involve the mammoth tasks of taxing dirty fuels and removing subsidies to create price signals that would eventually lead to:

• Doubling the fuel efficiency of over 2 billion cars from 30 mpg to 60 mpg,
• Replacing 1,400 coal-fired power plants with natural gas plants,
• Perfecting and installing CO₂ sequestration technology at all emitting plants,  
• Doubling Nuclear capacity,
• Increasing Wind power by 40 times
• Increasing Solar power by 700 times and,
• Cutting home and office electricity use by 25%.

I’m sure it needs to be done, but I’m not certain it can be done at the requisite speed.  

Inspiringly, Friedman unearths the green shoots of Red China; a country that is now leading the world in solar energy production and one that is on track to have 16% renewable energy capacity by 2020.  Environmentalists may glumly joke that Chairman Mao couldn't swim in Yangtze River anymore, but these are the kinds of encouraging examples that show the tide is turning.  Further examples of the U.S. military using energy efficiency technologies to defeat Al-Qaeda (when powering your air-conditioning and constantly running water around in the 121 degree desert heat, energy savings make your defence budget stretch a lot farther), the green solution is proving it’s worth in many different contexts.

As I stated at the beginning of my review, this book was a real eye-opener for me at the time of reading (2008).  Though it was written in 2008, it is still just as pertinent today and I implore anyone who doesn't consider the problem to be grave enough, or the solution to be exciting enough, to put this book on his or her reading list.  With the global financial crisis, attention has shifted from climate change to more immediate economic relief, however, Friedman provides a poignant reminder that focusing our energy on this challenge is the right thing to do morally and economically. If we start now, we have exactly enough time.

Score: 90/100